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Tag Archives: US Stock Market
Likely Scenario for US Stocks and Dollar in 2011
Likely Scenario for US Stocks Beginning in August 2010, we began to inform clients that our outlook for the near future of common stocks was decidedly positive. We continue to hold that view, for several primary macro-reasons which, in no particular order are: (1) Stimulative Federal Reserve policy is virtually promised for an extended period. This will eventually become a major problem, but for now, the markets will likely respond favorably. Whenever the debt market ultimately reacts to all of this, it will likely cause downward re-valuation of equities, as traders and investors alike adjust their earnings discount rate. (2) … Continue reading
Posted in White Papers
Tagged Economic Stimulus, US Congress, US Dollar, US Stock Market
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Did S&P 500 Bottom at 666?
Did S&P 500 bottom at 666 (on 3/6/09)? Answer: It will likely take the rest of 2009 to know the answer. This symbolic market index number appears to be the latest bottoming call for the growing multitude of in-print and on-the-air callers, some of whom have been calling for more than a year. (Some even said they ‘smelled a bottom’… in print, no kidding… as early as February 2008.) Unfortunately, we failed to keep a count of them for you. Such dead-wrong, but easily forgotten, market calls prompt us to recite one of our favorite rules from the Official Forecaster’s … Continue reading
An Old Fashioned Depression? Maybe, But Not Likely
How could this be happening? In the modern era, the most extreme terminology permitted in polite society for describing an economic downturn is “recession”. Although there was a 10-year period, well-known as the Great Depression, the word Depression has been banished by financial industry word-police for many years. Apparently, the 1930s were, until now, considered an anomaly which could not re-occur, because now we have modern hedging technology, incomparable market liquidity and much improved government supervision, among many other reasons. So, what went wrong this time? How could the damage be so colossal? After all, until very recently, business was … Continue reading