When Debt Does Not Equal Leverage
It’s all about liquidity... Debt = risk; risk requires management... The wrong horse to ride... Debtor-Nations Club... Next Chapter: State and local government fiscal crisis?... Much ado about a lot (of money)...
The CPI: Widespread Misuse and Consequences December 2009
Jobs, Jobs... The Urge to Regulate...
Can We Use the CPI to Conclude that We Have No Inflation? November 2009
Unless you have closed your eyes and ears... It is immediately apparent that, if
the cost of “housing” is stable or declining... All three of the above are now in play... The White Knight may (this time) be riding an exhausted horse...
Financing the Past with Future Dollars October 2009
Strong Dollar Policy... US Dollar Index (USD vs. currencies market basket – NY Board of
Trade)... Light Crude Oil (NY Mercantile Exchange) Are we resuming the 2002-2008 trend?... A quote from the US Treasury Department’s Bureau of the Public Debt web site…... A modest solution to servicing massive US debt (without default)...
US Fed: The Ultimate Cleanup Sponge July 2009
Green Shoots... Feder-nomics... So, where’s the sleight of hand? ... ‘Not so fast’, says the Fed... ‘Not to worry’ (about inflationary impact of Fed’s actions), says Bernanke... What gives at the US Treasury? ... US Personal Saving and Debt-Growth Rates are Healthy Again – Too bad...
White Paper: April 2009
Did S&P 500 bottom at 666 (on 3/6/09)?... Green market-sprouts of spring?... What do ‘THEY’ know?... Meanwhile, on the toxic front... Twin disasters for active equity portfolio managers... Accounting makes unfortunate headlines...again! ... An asset allocation footnote... HLooking for growth?... Outlook for US global market position...
Investing in 2009
Where do we stand?... Will massive federal rescue efforts “work”?... Risk-free?... Looking forward... Worst case... Best case... A 2009 “sure-thing” in money management... Hedge funds... Impact of the Madoff scandal...
An Old Fashioned Depression? Maybe, But Not Likely
How could this be happening?... Where do we fit now, in market history?... “This time it’s different” (as usual)... Market cycle position: worst case?... What if the Paulson bailout/rescue plan fails to work? Is a depression the next step? What could the US Fed do?... Lots of scared money, hiding under a rock... A modest proposal...
Oil, Inflation, the Dollar and Election Year
A Witch's Brew... Gordian Knot... Election-Year Swamp Gas... Oil Pricing Anomaly... Inflation: It is what it is…Or is it?... Woe is Social Security...
Quick Summary of Fannie/Freddie Debacle
“Fannie Mae” (Federal National Mortgage Assn…FNMA) was created by Congress in 1938 as a government
agency to create a marketplace for home mortgages, amid Depression-era credit doldrums; in 1968, Fannie issued its first
...
Bear Stearns and Liquidity
Loss of liquidity = unknowable value Nearly everyone knows that stocks listed on major exchanges share one major reason for their listing: the “electronic paper” securities behind those names in the listings rest on a universal belief that investors who own those securities can readily sell them on any market day....
Massive Amount Of "Bond Insurance" Contracts Pose An Unknowable Level Of Exposure To Global Financial Disorder
Before you decide this topic is esoteric, please read on...
Risk Management in a Typical 401(k) Plan
While participants in most 401(k) plans do understand that their investment choices will likely have significant economic impact on a major phase of their future life, it has been our observation that the several obstacles plague a large portion of them...
2006: Another Real Estate Bubble?
Is there a REAL, real estate bubble out there? Or is it merely a housing bubble?
It’s an important distinction, because, while single-family homes are a big, boisterous factor in the public domain, investors in the business of real estate own foundations that are very different from those of America’s castle-barons.
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): An Overview
REITs have a surprisingly low correlations with, not only small cap US stocks,
but also with other equity securities categories...
RISK . . . a four-letter word that deserves a real-world definition
If we define “Risk” as exposure to Unacceptable Outcome(s), then...
US Treasury Debt Looks like Home Equity Borrowing
Why Would Anyone Take on Adjustable Rate Debt Now?
…yet, that is what the US Treasury is (in effect) doing.
SEC Reviews Investment Consultants
SEC Staff Issues Report on Investment Consultants Possible Conflicts of Interest
How Does FiduciaryVest, LLC Stack Up?
Selecting and Monitoring Pension Consultants
SEC Tips for Plan Fiduciaries
Financing the Social Security Crisis
The Biggest Game in Town: The Social Security Pea May Be Under More Than One Shell